19/07/2024【Feature】Etsuko Motokawa - Oly Women champion and group winner analysis

Etsuko Motokawa – Oly Women
Etsuko Motokawa is covering JD1, as well as all women’s football competitions.

Champion and group winner prediction
World champions Spain favourites to claim Olympic gold
Spain won the Women’s World Cup last year, and with the top-ranked team in the world boasting several of the Barcelona side that also won the Champions League, they are my favourites to add a gold medal to their collection in Paris.

France have a lot of defenders and forwards from the Lyon side that finished as runners-up in last season’s Champions League. Although they were knocked out of the 2023 World Cup in the quarter-finals, I think they can go deep in this competition, and could even win it if they can convert the pressure on them as hosts into power. I think they will likely end up with silver though, while Germany, ranked fourth in the world, have a lot of talented players like the prolific goalscorer Alexandra Popp and are my tip to take bronze.

Canada won gold at Tokyo 2020 but were eliminated in the group stage of last year’s World Cup, and I don’t think they are at the same level as the likes of France or Spain. Canada’s achievement in the intense heat of Japan last time out shouldn’t be underestimated though, and like any of the top 10-ranked sides if they can make it to the knockout stages then I think they have a chance of claiming a medal here too.

Japan look stronger than they did at Tokyo 2020 and have a rejuvenated squad, but their biggest goal threat Hinata Miyazawa was out for four months and doesn’t quite look back to her best yet. The lack of a proven goalscorer could be an issue, and I feel like winning a medal could be very tough this time around.

Outside of the usual favourites I think Colombia could be a dark horse in Paris, and in Catalina Usme they have a talented goalscorer who led them to the quarter-finals of the World Cup last year.

Group A
Hosts France the standout side
I expect France to finish first in Group A, with Canada favourites to come second - although Colombia will mount a strong challenge. Including star striker Eugenie Le Sommer all of France’s forwards are in double figures for goals scored, while players like Grace Geyoro are also incredibly talented. France will be under pressure as hosts, but the squad has so much depth and in Herve Renard they have a coach with vast experience in a range of countries who is sure to be able to manage the team throughout the competition.

Canada won gold at Tokyo 2020 but didn’t get past the group stage at the 2023 Women’s World Cup, losing 4-0 to Australia and drawing 0-0 with Nigeria. They are a vastly experienced team though, and including Ashley Lawrence and Kadeisha Buchanan have several players with over 100 caps. Canada have good balance between defence and attack and are well organised with plenty of height, which makes them a formidable opponent. I’m sure their game against France will be the standout fixture in Group A.

As well as France’s Le Sommer and Canada’s Lawrence and Buchanan I’m also looking forward to seeing the jewel in Colombia’s crown, Linda Caicedo, in action. The Real Madrid forward leads a team blessed with plenty of rapidly-emerging talent which will be full of confidence after progressing to the quarter-finals of last year’s World Cup. They are my Group A dark horse for sure, while I feel it will be a difficult campaign for New Zealand.

Group B
Germany favourites, USA and Australia sure to challenge
Germany and the United States are two powers of the women’s game, but Australia finished fourth at the 2023 Women’s World Cup and are also a team with recent achievements behind them. I think Germany will finish top of the group and USA probably second, although Australia will push them all the way and the game between Australia and the United States will be critical.

The core of the Germany team is built upon Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich players so they have quality and should combine well, while in Alexandra Popp they also have a reliable source of goals. The United States are going through a regeneration, and the gold medal may be beyond them in Paris. Members of the golden generation like Megan Rapinoe and Alex Morgan have moved on, and while new coach Emma Hayes has plenty of European experience she is untested at international level. Australia, meanwhile, finished fourth at Tokyo 2020 and last year’s World Cup are good tactically when pressing. They also have big names like Mary Fowler, although the absence of Sam Kerr will hurt.

Alongside Popp and Fowler, Lindsey Horan looks set to become the United States’ new star, while Zambia boast the phenomenal goalscorer Barbra Banda, who has strength and explosiveness in abundance. Indeed, Banda’s presence means none of the big three sides can take Zambia for granted, and if she clicks then Zambia could well cause an upset in Group B.

Group C
Spain to lead they way
Spain are the clear favourites in Group C. The core of the team is built upon the Barcelona side that won the Champions League last season, and they have overwhelming technical skill and the ability to keep possession. I can’t see a repeat of the slip-up that saw Spain lose 4-0 to Japan in the group stage at the Women’s World Cup, and with talent like Aitana Bonmati and Salma Paralluelo Spain has a big chance to win gold in Paris.

I don’t see much difference in quality between the other three teams - Japan, Brazil, and Nigeria - but think Japan’s unity means they should just about make sure of second place. Brazilian legend Marta looks set to retire after this competition so her teammates will be motivated to send her out on a high, but I can’t see them getting any further than the quarter-finals. Japan’s Hinata Miyazawa, top scorer at last year’s World Cup, joins Bonmati, Paralluelo, and Marta as a key player to watch in Group C, and although she only recently returned from injury she is a natural scorer.

Former Barcelona forward Asisat Oshoala will be Nigeria’s key attacking threat. Indeed, Nigeria made it to the quarter-finals at last year’s World Cup, and with strength, height, and other talents like Toni Payne they could surprise a few people. I think their game against Japan could be crucial in deciding who progresses as runners-up from Group C.

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