16/07/2024【Feature】Tulio Tanaka - Oly Men champion and group winner analysis
Tulio Tanaka – Oly Men
Former Japan international defender Marcus Tulio Tanaka played at the 2004 Olympic Games.
Champion and group winner prediction
Spain on course to better Tokyo 2020 achievement and claim gold medal
Tokyo 2020 gold medallists Brazil won’t be in Paris to defend their Olympic title, but a whole host of other top sides will be targeting glory at the 2024 Games.
Spain’s full national team recently won the European Championships and will be determined to go one better than at Tokyo 2020, where they claimed the silver medal. Spain have a wealth of quality throughout the squad, and I think they have more than enough talent to make a real push for the gold medal here.
Hosts France have a legendary ex-player as manager in Thierry Henry, and although his quality as a coach is still unknown they have a solid defensive unit made up of players from top European clubs and are my tip to take silver. Alexandre Lacazette has been named as an overage player for France and is still a good finisher in Ligue 1. While I’m not convinced he has the mental qualities to be a natural leader, France have a relatively easy group and I expect them to challenge for the group winner.
Argentina finished second behind Paraguay in the South American qualifiers, but did beat rivals Brazil to make sure of their place in Paris. That result confirmed Argentina’s quality, and I think they have an excellent chance of claiming a medal under Javier Mascherano this summer, most likely bronze.
I will of course also be keeping a very close eye on Japan, and although they didn’t include any overage players or top U-23 talent like Takefusa Kubo in the squad, I think we can rely on the unity and teamwork that helped the team win the U-23 Asian Cup in May. Expectations aren’t especially high ahead of the competition, but Japan often thrives when that is the case and I think Go Oiwa’s men could actually be a dark horse in Paris.
Group A
Hosts France and talented United States to light up
With Paris hosting this year’s Olympics, France have a big home advantage, and I fully expect them to finish top of Group A. As the host nation there will of course be a level of pressure and expectation on the team as well, but I think they have more than enough quality to cope with that and progress deep into the competition.
The United States have an exciting young generation right now too, with the level of Major League Soccer (MLS) steadily improving and a lot of highly talented players emerging. As a result of that rapid growth, I think they should take second place in the group. As a former centre-back myself, I am a big fan of France defender Castello Lukeba, who had an excellent season for RB Leipzig last year and has also already featured for the full national team. Djordje Mihailovic is also a player I expect to stand out in Group A, and having been included as an overage player for the United States, he will have plenty of responsibility on his shoulders.
France and the United States squaring off in the first round of games adds to the excitement heading into the competition, and I think the outcome of that contest will have an impact on how the group ultimately plays out. Guinea have incredible physicality and shouldn’t be overlooked either, and they certainly have the potential to cause a surprise or two.
Group B
Iraq a dark horse, but Argentina and Morocco favourites
Argentina demonstrated an incredible fighting spirit during the South American qualifiers for this year’s Olympics, and they should finish first in Group B.
Javier Mascherano’s side will be highly motivated to get a first medal since 2008, and while they don’t have as many standout individual talents as in the past, they work very hard as a team and have a high level of intensity. Argentina’s Thiago Almada finished as joint top scorer in the South American qualifiers for this year’s Games with five goals, and without doubt he is the player I’m most excited about watching in Group B.
Morocco’s full national team were excellent at the 2022 World Cup, and with some of the players from that squad also set to be involved in Paris, I think they will be a team to watch again and should finish as group runners-up. In terms of key games in the group, it is hard to look past the head to head between Argentina and Morocco, which promises to be a closely-fought contest.
Ukraine’s underage teams are traditionally very difficult opponents, but the country is of course experiencing lots of difficulties outside of football at the moment and I feel that the war will certainly have had an impact on the players’ development. Iraq impressed at the recent U-23 Asian Cup and are never an easy team to beat, and I see them as Group B’s dark horse.
Group C
Spain and Egypt to edge out Uzbekistan
Spain won the silver medal at Tokyo 2020, and I think the full national team’s recent triumph at the European Championships will give the Olympic team real impetus in Paris, so I expect them to come top of Group C. Having narrowly lost the final against Brazil three years ago, Spain will be highly motivated to go one better this summer, and I can definitely see them making a very strong challenge for the gold medal. Spain captain Abel Ruiz was excellent for Portuguese side Braga last season and recently signed for Girona in La Liga, and I’m especially looking forward to seeing him lead the line in Paris.
Egypt are also a very good side with plenty of pedigree, and I think they will be able to capitalise upon their overwhelming physical attributes to make sure of second place in the group and progression to the knockout stage. The Spain versus Egypt game stands out as one to watch from this particular group, and promises to be an excellent clash between two different styles of play.
Uzbekistan were very impressive at the U-23 Asian Cup earlier this year, narrowly losing the final to Japan, and I think they could be a dark horse in Group C. While they were one of the strongest teams in their continental qualifiers, it remains to be seen if they can replicate that form on the big stage on their Olympics debut though.
Group D
Japan to take top spot, closely followed by Paraguay
Japan are the only team not to have called up any overage players for this year’s Games, but they contested the bronze medal match at Tokyo 2020 and were crowned champions at this year’s U-23 Asian Cup. I think we can expect that momentum to carry the team in Paris, starting with first place in the group. Joel Chima Fujita was voted as MVP at the Asian qualifiers, and his ability to control the game from the middle of the park means he will be Japan’s most important player - and the player I’m most looking forward to watching in Group D - as they aim for a first Olympic medal since 1968.
Paraguay are my tip to finish second, and having beaten Brazil and drawn with Argentina on their way to winning the South American qualifiers, they won’t be a team to take lightly. They have a great mixture of maturity, intensity, and good combination play. The opening game between Paraguay and Japan looks set to be very important to both team’s chances in Paris, and I expect it to be very closely contested.
Mali defeated Japan in a friendly earlier this year and are a team that are perhaps moving under a lot of people’s radars ahead of the Olympics. But they certainly can’t be underestimated and have the potential to beat anybody on their day thanks to their impressive blend of technical and physical attributes.
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